We’re now two weeks into Spring 2022 and the property predictions are plentiful! Some are saying listings are about to take off, others predict it will stay flat vs last year and others tell us the market is about to fall off a cliff. You can really take your prediction pick. At Eckermanns, we like to focus on the data.
And according to the data from the good folk at Core Logic, in Adelaide, we have seen an average increase in listings of 33.7% in Spring compared to the Winter preceding for the period 2015 – 2019. That’s quite a jump and as a comparison the same statistic for Melbourne is 23.7%, Sydney 21.4%, Perth 19.5% and Brisbane 13.5%. The uplift for Canberra is a whopping 42.4% – perhaps driven by the tulips of Floriade!
Core Logic also report that Adelaide home values are sitting at almost 45% above pre-pandemic levels. While Sydney and Melbourne markets have seen some significant reductions in average property values over the last year, Adelaide has just had its very first month of negative value growth in the current cycle. It seems we’re tracking quite a way behind the eastern states on a values correction and maybe what we’re going to see here will be a less pronounced correction – that’s certainly been our experience in the past. We’ve always maintained that Adelaide doesn’t experience the quantum of value swings we see in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
Land Services SA (LSSA) provides regular reporting to the market on the number of transfers registered each month. Transfers are officially recorded at LSSA just after settlement takes place and naturally, there is quite a lag between when a property is listed and when the transfer is registered. This is because a property takes time to market and sell and then there is then the addition of the settlement period.
For the period 2013 to 2019, Spring transfers registered at LSSA were very consistent with little change year on year. However, Spring 2020 saw 26% growth (14,507 in total) vs Spring 2019 (11,491) and in 2021, the jump was 12% (16,312).
Winter 2022 recorded a drop of 6% in property transfers registered at LSSA vs Winter 2021. It remains to be seen whether a similar drop will be recorded at LSSA for Spring 2022, but we’ll be keeping a keen eye on it here at Eckermanns. With auction clearance rates in Adelaide still strong, we think falling off that cliff in the near future isn’t very likely.